US labor market and inflation data are the key events markets are waiting for this week

Markets are anticipating a number of important economic data releases this week, most notably the US jobs report due on Friday at 3:30 PM Saudi time . This data is particularly significant in determining whether the US labor market remains resilient or has begun to weaken and slow down, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions in the coming period. A clear weakening of the labor market could reduce the likelihood of a return to interest rate hikes, while continued strength could allow the Fed to proceed with further rate increases in the future if inflationary pressures persist.

The forecast indicates that the US economy will add 98,000 non-farm jobs, compared to 162,000 previously , with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1% , and average wage growth of 0.3% per month, unchanged from the previous reading.

Prior to that, markets are awaiting the release of US inflation data on Wednesday at 3:30 PM , according to the Core PCE index , with expectations pointing to a rise of 0.3% monthly compared to 0.2% previously .

Tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 AM , markets will be awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on interest rates , with expectations that they will be raised to 4.60% from 4.35% .

In Europe, the most anticipated event on Friday will be the release of Eurozone inflation data at 12:00 PM . Forecasts indicate that annual inflation will rise to 3.7% from 3.2% previously , and core inflation will increase to 2.5% from 2.4% . These figures will provide a clearer picture of whether the European Central Bank will continue raising interest rates or pause.

In general, these data together will contribute to shaping the overall picture of the direction of monetary policy , whether towards continuing tightening and raising interest rates or stopping it, but they do not on their own represent a final judgment on the future course of central banks.

Meanwhile, geopolitical factors, particularly developments in the Middle East, remain the most important factor at the moment ; any major escalation or de-escalation could quickly change the landscape, pushing oil prices, inflation, and markets into strong upward or downward movements, and thus potentially reshaping economic expectations and the trajectory of interest rates, regardless of some of the economic readings expected this week.

Tuesday, September 29

Previous Expected Statement Time: 7:30 AM | Australian Interest Rate Decision | 4.60% | 4.35%
5:00 PM | 🇺🇸 US Consumer Confidence CB | 90.1 | 89.4
5:00 PM | 🇺🇸 Job Opportunities JOLTS | 7.23 million | 7.27 million

Wednesday, September 30

Previous Expected Statement Time 4:30 AM | 🇦🇺 Monthly Inflation CPI | 0.5% | 1.0%
4:30 AM | 🇦🇺 Annual Inflation CPI | 4.1% | 3.5%
4:30 AM | 🇦🇺 Core Inflation Trimmed Mean – Monthly | 0.3% | 0.5%
All day | 🇩🇪 German Primary Inflation – Monthly | 0.5% | 0.2%
3:15 PM | 🇺🇸 ADP Private Sector Jobs | 70,000 | 38,000
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Core PCE Inflation – Monthly | 0.3% | 0.2%
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Final GDP – Quarterly | 1.5% | 1.5%
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Final GDP Price Index | 6.4% | 6.4%

Thursday, October 1

Previous expected time: 9:30 AM | Swiss Inflation - Monthly | 0.0% | 0.4%
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims | 199,000 | 197,000
5:00 PM | 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing Index | 55.0 | 54.6

Friday, October 2

Previous expected time: 2:30 AM | 🇯🇵 Tokyo Core Inflation – Year-on-Year | 2.4% | 1.8%
12:00 PM | 🇪🇺 Eurozone Core Inflation – Year-on-Year | 2.5% | 2.4%
12:00 PM | 🇪🇺 Eurozone Inflation – Annual | 3.7% | 3.2%
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Wage – Monthly | 0.3% | 0.3%
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | 98,000 | 162,000
3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1%